diff --git a/static/app/views/explore/components/chart/chartFooter.tsx b/static/app/views/explore/components/chart/chartFooter.tsx
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000000..9850ae907170a3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/static/app/views/explore/components/chart/chartFooter.tsx
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+import styled from '@emotion/styled';
+
+import usePrevious from 'sentry/utils/usePrevious';
+
+export function usePreviouslyLoaded<T>(current: T, isLoading: boolean): T {
+  const previous = usePrevious(current, isLoading);
+  return isLoading ? previous : current;
+}
+
+export const Container = styled('span')`
+  color: ${p => p.theme.subText};
+  font-size: ${p => p.theme.fontSize.sm};
+`;
diff --git a/static/app/views/explore/components/chart/types.tsx b/static/app/views/explore/components/chart/types.tsx
index 7180f665680b52..c272f885a856c3 100644
--- a/static/app/views/explore/components/chart/types.tsx
+++ b/static/app/views/explore/components/chart/types.tsx
@@ -14,4 +14,5 @@ export interface ChartInfo {
   isSampled?: boolean | null;
   sampleCount?: number;
   samplingMode?: SamplingMode;
+  topEvents?: number;
 }
diff --git a/static/app/views/explore/logs/confidenceFooter.tsx b/static/app/views/explore/logs/confidenceFooter.tsx
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000000..09252f3d0dd5d7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/static/app/views/explore/logs/confidenceFooter.tsx
@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
+import {Tooltip} from 'sentry/components/core/tooltip';
+import Count from 'sentry/components/count';
+import {t, tct} from 'sentry/locale';
+import type {Confidence} from 'sentry/types/organization';
+import {defined} from 'sentry/utils';
+import {
+  Container,
+  usePreviouslyLoaded,
+} from 'sentry/views/explore/components/chart/chartFooter';
+import type {ChartInfo} from 'sentry/views/explore/components/chart/types';
+
+interface ConfidenceFooterProps {
+  chartInfo: ChartInfo;
+  isLoading: boolean;
+}
+
+export function ConfidenceFooter({
+  chartInfo: currentChartInfo,
+  isLoading,
+}: ConfidenceFooterProps) {
+  const chartInfo = usePreviouslyLoaded(currentChartInfo, isLoading);
+  return (
+    <Container>
+      <ConfidenceMessage
+        confidence={chartInfo.confidence}
+        dataScanned={chartInfo.dataScanned}
+        isSampled={chartInfo.isSampled}
+        sampleCount={chartInfo.sampleCount}
+        topEvents={chartInfo.topEvents}
+      />
+    </Container>
+  );
+}
+
+interface ConfidenceMessageProps {
+  confidence?: Confidence;
+  dataScanned?: 'full' | 'partial';
+  isSampled?: boolean | null;
+  sampleCount?: number;
+  topEvents?: number;
+}
+
+function ConfidenceMessage({
+  sampleCount,
+  dataScanned,
+  confidence,
+  topEvents,
+  isSampled,
+}: ConfidenceMessageProps) {
+  const isTopN = defined(topEvents) && topEvents > 1;
+
+  if (!defined(sampleCount)) {
+    return isTopN
+      ? t('* Top %s groups extrapolated based on \u2026', topEvents)
+      : t('* Extrapolated based on \u2026');
+  }
+
+  const noSampling = defined(isSampled) && !isSampled;
+  const sampleCountComponent = <Count value={sampleCount} />;
+
+  if (dataScanned === 'full') {
+    // For logs, if the full data was scanned, we can assume that no
+    // extrapolation happened and we should remove mentions of extrapolation.
+    if (isTopN) {
+      return tct('Top [topEvents] groups based on [sampleCountComponent] logs', {
+        topEvents,
+        sampleCountComponent,
+      });
+    }
+
+    return tct('Based on [sampleCountComponent] logs', {
+      sampleCountComponent,
+    });
+  }
+
+  if (confidence === 'low') {
+    const lowAccuracyFullSampleCount = <LowAccuracyFullTooltip noSampling={noSampling} />;
+
+    if (isTopN) {
+      return tct(
+        'Top [topEvents] groups extrapolated based on [tooltip:[sampleCountComponent] logs]',
+        {
+          topEvents,
+          tooltip: lowAccuracyFullSampleCount,
+          sampleCountComponent,
+        }
+      );
+    }
+
+    return tct('Extrapolated based on [tooltip:[sampleCountComponent] logs]', {
+      tooltip: lowAccuracyFullSampleCount,
+      sampleCountComponent,
+    });
+  }
+
+  if (isTopN) {
+    return tct(
+      'Top [topEvents] groups extrapolated based on [sampleCountComponent] logs',
+      {
+        topEvents,
+        sampleCountComponent,
+      }
+    );
+  }
+
+  return tct('Extrapolated based on [sampleCountComponent] logs', {
+    sampleCountComponent,
+  });
+}
+
+function LowAccuracyFullTooltip({
+  noSampling,
+  children,
+}: {
+  noSampling: boolean;
+  children?: React.ReactNode;
+}) {
+  return (
+    <Tooltip
+      title={
+        <div>
+          {t(
+            'You may not have enough logs for a high accuracy extrapolation of your query.'
+          )}
+          <br />
+          <br />
+          {t(
+            "You can try adjusting your query by narrowing the date range, removing filters or increasing the chart's time interval."
+          )}
+          <br />
+          <br />
+          {t(
+            'You can also increase your sampling rates to get more samples and accurate trends.'
+          )}
+        </div>
+      }
+      disabled={noSampling}
+      maxWidth={270}
+      showUnderline
+    >
+      {children}
+    </Tooltip>
+  );
+}
diff --git a/static/app/views/explore/logs/logsGraph.tsx b/static/app/views/explore/logs/logsGraph.tsx
index 28360adbf495a8..af1e99b54fdb94 100644
--- a/static/app/views/explore/logs/logsGraph.tsx
+++ b/static/app/views/explore/logs/logsGraph.tsx
@@ -4,15 +4,25 @@ import {CompactSelect} from 'sentry/components/core/compactSelect';
 import {Tooltip} from 'sentry/components/core/tooltip';
 import {IconClock, IconGraph} from 'sentry/icons';
 import {t} from 'sentry/locale';
+import {defined} from 'sentry/utils';
+import {determineSeriesSampleCountAndIsSampled} from 'sentry/views/alerts/rules/metric/utils/determineSeriesSampleCount';
 import {Widget} from 'sentry/views/dashboards/widgets/widget/widget';
 import {ChartVisualization} from 'sentry/views/explore/components/chart/chartVisualization';
-import {useLogsAggregate} from 'sentry/views/explore/contexts/logs/logsPageParams';
+import {
+  useLogsAggregate,
+  useLogsGroupBy,
+} from 'sentry/views/explore/contexts/logs/logsPageParams';
 import {
   ChartIntervalUnspecifiedStrategy,
   useChartInterval,
 } from 'sentry/views/explore/hooks/useChartInterval';
+import {TOP_EVENTS_LIMIT} from 'sentry/views/explore/hooks/useTopEvents';
+import {ConfidenceFooter} from 'sentry/views/explore/logs/confidenceFooter';
 import {EXPLORE_CHART_TYPE_OPTIONS} from 'sentry/views/explore/spans/charts';
-import {prettifyAggregation} from 'sentry/views/explore/utils';
+import {
+  combineConfidenceForSeries,
+  prettifyAggregation,
+} from 'sentry/views/explore/utils';
 import {ChartType} from 'sentry/views/insights/common/components/chart';
 import type {useSortedTimeSeries} from 'sentry/views/insights/common/queries/useSortedTimeSeries';
 
@@ -22,6 +32,7 @@ interface LogsGraphProps {
 
 export function LogsGraph({timeseriesResult}: LogsGraphProps) {
   const aggregate = useLogsAggregate();
+  const groupBy = useLogsGroupBy();
 
   const [chartType, setChartType] = useState<ChartType>(ChartType.BAR);
   const [interval, setInterval, intervalOptions] = useChartInterval({
@@ -30,13 +41,21 @@ export function LogsGraph({timeseriesResult}: LogsGraphProps) {
 
   const chartInfo = useMemo(() => {
     const series = timeseriesResult.data[aggregate] ?? [];
+    const isTopEvents = defined(groupBy);
+    const samplingMeta = determineSeriesSampleCountAndIsSampled(series, isTopEvents);
     return {
       chartType,
       series,
       timeseriesResult,
       yAxis: aggregate,
+      confidence: combineConfidenceForSeries(series),
+      dataScanned: samplingMeta.dataScanned,
+      isSampled: samplingMeta.isSampled,
+      sampleCount: samplingMeta.sampleCount,
+      samplingMode: undefined,
+      topEvents: isTopEvents ? TOP_EVENTS_LIMIT : undefined,
     };
-  }, [chartType, timeseriesResult, aggregate]);
+  }, [chartType, timeseriesResult, aggregate, groupBy]);
 
   const Title = (
     <Widget.WidgetTitle title={prettifyAggregation(aggregate) ?? aggregate} />
@@ -83,6 +102,9 @@ export function LogsGraph({timeseriesResult}: LogsGraphProps) {
       Title={Title}
       Actions={Actions}
       Visualization={<ChartVisualization chartInfo={chartInfo} />}
+      Footer={
+        <ConfidenceFooter chartInfo={chartInfo} isLoading={timeseriesResult.isLoading} />
+      }
       revealActions="always"
     />
   );
diff --git a/static/app/views/explore/logs/logsTab.tsx b/static/app/views/explore/logs/logsTab.tsx
index cf0c18dacbb955..bae9f3dd1b7ace 100644
--- a/static/app/views/explore/logs/logsTab.tsx
+++ b/static/app/views/explore/logs/logsTab.tsx
@@ -67,6 +67,7 @@ import {
   ChartIntervalUnspecifiedStrategy,
   useChartInterval,
 } from 'sentry/views/explore/hooks/useChartInterval';
+import {TOP_EVENTS_LIMIT} from 'sentry/views/explore/hooks/useTopEvents';
 import {
   HiddenColumnEditorLogFields,
   HiddenLogSearchFields,
@@ -171,7 +172,7 @@ export function LogsTabContent({
       yAxis: [aggregate],
       interval,
       fields: [...(groupBy ? [groupBy] : []), aggregate],
-      topEvents: groupBy?.length ? 5 : undefined,
+      topEvents: groupBy ? TOP_EVENTS_LIMIT : undefined,
       orderby,
     },
     'explore.ourlogs.main-chart',